We distinguish between annual LE changes and LE deficits, with the former showing the raw year-to-year difference and the latter indicating the difference between observed and expected LE had pre-pandemic trends continued. We examine LE changes since 2019 in 29 countries, including most of Europe, the United States and Chile, using data on all-cause mortality from the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations Database 19 following a previously validated methodology 6. Emerging estimates of LE losses based on excess deaths suggest that most western European countries are expected to partly recover from the losses observed in 2020, while other countries (including the United States and Russia) will suffer further LE declines 18. Throughout 2021, the impact of the pandemic became more heterogeneous across populations with differences in prior infection, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination uptake, all influencing the pandemic’s course. In contrast to these short-term fluctuations, however, the COVID-19 pandemic induced global and severe mortality shocks in 2020 and, as of spring 2022, is still ongoing. Typically, LE declines are quickly followed by bounce backs 16, 17. Only very few countries did not witness declines in LE in 2020, including Norway, Denmark, Finland (for females only), New Zealand and Australia 6, 7, 14, 15.įluctuations in LE are not uncommon. While data limitations have precluded in-depth analyses in low-to-middle-income countries, emerging evidence suggests even larger losses than those observed in high-income countries (such as in India 10 and Latin America 11, 12, 13). The COVID-19 crisis triggered a mortality shock resulting in LE declines in 2020 of a magnitude not observed in the recent history of high-income countries 6, 7, 8, 9. However, at the turn of the twenty-first century, the rate of improvement in LE slowed in many high-income countries prior to the COVID-19 pandemic 2, such as the United States 3, England and Wales 4, and Scotland 5, among others 3. Most countries experienced sizable gains in LE during the second half of the twentieth century 1. In this paper we investigate LE changes since the start of the pandemic, distinguishing countries that saw worsening losses from countries that managed to bounce back from their LE drop in 2020. The measure is age-standardized and thus commonly employed for international comparisons of population health. Conversely, if mortality declines, LE increases. If mortality increases in a population, LE declines. Period life expectancy (LE) is a summary measure of current population health. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses. In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses.

Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries ( r 60+ = −0.86 two-tailed P < 0.001 95% confidence interval, −0.94 to −0.69 r <60 = −0.74 two-tailed P < 0.001 95% confidence interval, −0.88 to −0.46). While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions.

Life expectancy in us for males